1.
Mikhail A. Guzev, Nikolay N. Kradin, and Evgeniya Nikitina
 Social Evolution & History , 2017
Many researchers, from Edward Gibbon to Arnold Toynbee, were interested in how large polities would emerge and collapse. Traditionally, the history of empires was considered both in temporal and spatial dynamics. This article focuses on the study...
Many researchers, from Edward Gibbon to Arnold Toynbee, were interested in how large polities would emerge and collapse. Traditionally, the history of empires was considered both in temporal and spatial dynamics. This article focuses on the study of the external manifestations of polities' structural features which may be expressed by a limited set of mathematical curves described by the specified Zipf's law. An ideal Zipf's curve is characteristic of the classical empires with complex economies (China, Rome, and others). However, the curves of some empires have a distinctive feature – an ‘imperial tail’. The simpler the structure of large polities is, the closer is the line describing their livelihoods to a right line.
https://www.socionauki.ru/journal/articles/1213934/
2.
Nazaretyan, Akop P.
 Social Evolution & History , 2017
A series of calculations carried out independently by the Australian, Russian, and American researchers have demonstrated that a crucial global polyfurcation is expected somewhere near the middle of the twentyfirst century. This result is drawn...
A series of calculations carried out independently by the Australian, Russian, and American researchers have demonstrated that a crucial global polyfurcation is expected somewhere near the middle of the twentyfirst century. This result is drawn by extrapolating into the future the logarithmic acceleration law, which involves the phase transitions in the evolution of biosphere and anthroposphere. The paper investigates the palliatives of the planetary civilization beyond the big evolutionary Singularity in the context of Megahistory and complexity theory worldviews. It gives a universal ground to the mathematical deduction and besides, helps involve some recent discoveries in psychology and cultural anthropology to tracing the forecasted attractors and scenarios. The destiny of the Earth (as well as of any other planetary) civilization may conclusively depend on whether or not the intellectual actor succeeds in developing the inner regulation to balance the potentially unlimited developments in technological power. Particularly, this includes overcoming the macrogroup identities, religious and quasireligious ideologies, which always suggest a friendorfoe discrimination matrix.
