В статье рассмотрены основные причины и факторы, определяющие переломный характер периода 2017–2025 гг. Проанализированы наиболее важные тенденции этого периода в сопоставлении с наблюдавшимися в предшествующие переломные периоды (1849–1857 гг. и 1945–1953 гг.) предыдущих циклов эволюции мировой системы. К числу этих тенденций относятся сдвиги в мировом политическом лидерстве, перемещение центра тяжести мирового развития из Евроатлантического в Азиатско-Тихоокеанский регион, политические кризисы и социальные потрясения в Европе, рост внутренней и международной конфликтности, экономические и политические кризисы, масштабные геополитические и геоэкономические сдвиги, важные изменения в духовной, культурной и идеологической областях. На основании выявленных тенденций и эмпирического анализа происходящих в современном мире процессов сделан прогноз о наиболее важных изменениях и сдвигах, которые, вероятнее всего, будут наблюдаться в период 2017–2025 гг. Среди этих изменений особую роль будут играть переход к полицентричному мировому порядку и новому технологическому укладу, кризисные явления в мировой экономике и финансовой сфере, усиление влияния Китая и других стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона, борьба с международным терроризмом, кризис в Европейском союзе. России предстоит сложный период адаптации к быстро меняющимся экономическим, технологическим и политическим условиям. Одна из наиболее важных проблем, от разрешения которой зависит будущее России, – осуществление реиндустриализации и внедрение новых технологий. The article describes the key causes and factors that determine the nature of the threshold period between 2017 and 2025. The author analyzes the most important trends of this period, which took place during similar turning periods (between 1849–1857 and 1945–1953) of the world system's previous evolutionary cycles. Among these trends are shifts in the global political leadership, transition of the center of influence on the world development from the Euro-Atlantic to the Asia-Pacific region, political crises and social upheavals in Europe, growth of domestic and international conflicts in the world, economic and political crises, large-scale geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts, important changes in the spiritual, cultural, and ideological spheres. On the basis of the identified trends and empirical analysis of the processes ongoing in the world, the author formulates his forecast of the key changes and shifts that are likely to happen between 2017 and 2025. Some of these changes and shifts will be of particular importance, notably the transition to a polycentric world order and the new technological paradigm, the crises in the world economy and in the financial sector, the growing influence of China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the fight against international terrorism, and the crisis in the European Union. Russia is to face a difficult period of adaptation to the rapidly changing economic, technological and political conditions. One of the most crucial tasks, whose solution will determine Russia’s future, is the implementation of re-industrialization and introduction of new technologies. Подробнее https://www.socionauki.ru/journal/articles/1018677/

The present article analyzes the world order in the past, present and future as well as the main factors, foundations and ideas underlying the maintaining and change of the international and global order. The first two sections investigate the evolution of the world order starting from the ancient times up to the late twentieth century. The third section analyzes the origin and decline of the world order based on the American hegemony. The authors reveal the contradictions of the current unipolar world and explain in what way globalization has become more profitable for the developing countries but not for the developed ones. In the paper also explains the strengthening belief that the US leading status will inevitably weaken. In this connection we discuss the alternatives of the American strategy and the possibility of the renaissance of the American leadership. The last section presents a factor analysis which allows stating that the world is shifting toward a new balance of power and is likely to become the world without a leader. The new world order will consist of a number of large blocks, coalitions and countries acting within a framework of rules and mutual responsibility. However, the transition to a new world order will take certain time (about two decades). This period, which we denote as the epoch of new coalitions, will involve a reconfiguration of the World System and bring an increasing turbulence and conflict intensity. Подробнее https://www.socionauki.ru/journal/articles/445641/

The paper discusses some aspects of integration of different regions and societies in the course of historical globalization. Within historical globalization one can observe a close correlation between such important processes as technological transformations, urbanization, political integration, struggle for political hegemony, etc. In the paper we analyze these correlations in more or less details. We also try to associate historical globalization and its aspects with the phases of expansion of spatial links between societies. Within the expansion process we point out seven levels from the local level through the planetary one. The most significant changes were associated with crucial technological breakthroughs, or production revolutions and other related transformations like the Urban Revolution. The latter can be regarded as a phase transition of the Afroeurasian world-system to a qualitatively new level of complexity. There are also several periods which one can define as landmarks in the World-System history. The paper also offers some theoretical ideas about cycles of divergence and convergence. https://www.socionauki.ru/journal/articles/1213882/

В статье рассматривается эволюция мирового порядка начиная с древности, основные факторы, принципы и идеи, лежащие в основе периодизации установления и смены этого порядка. Анализируется, как формировался, развивался и начал ослабевать мировой порядок, основанный на американской гегемонии; рассматриваются различные взгляды относительно ослабления лидерских позиций США; показано, каким образом глобализация стала более выгодной для развивающихся, а не развитых стран. В статье дается характеристика современного положения в международных отношениях как ситуации начала реконфигурации Мир-Системы, что должно означать наступление эпохи турбулентности и формирования новых коалиций. Это будет своего рода переходная эпоха к более устойчивому новому мировому порядку, установление которого будет непростым. Автор высказывает идеи относительно того, в каком направлении и как этот новый порядок будет формироваться, каковы могут быть его принципы и возможные механизмы установления, в частности развитие «экспертократии» на фоне упадка демократии. The article studies the evolution of the world order starting to form from the ancient times as well as the main factors, principles, and ideas underlying the establishment and change of this order. The author analyzes the way the world order based on the American hegemony was formed, developed and how it has started to weaken; there are also con-sidered different approaches to the fact of weakening of the US leading positions and it is also shown how globalization has become more profitable for the developing and not developed countries. The author gives the main characteristics of the contemporary international affairs and denotes the situation as the starting reconfiguration of the World System which may bring the turbulent epoch of formation of new coalitions. This will be a certain transition period to a more stable world order whose establishment will be far from simple. The author argues about the directions and the ways this new world order can be formed, what will be its foundations and possible mechanisms of establishment, in particular, through the development of ‘expertocracy’ at the background of declining democracy.

Change in complex systems, system evolution, is itself complex. This paper is about world system evolution as it is reflected in the pattern of urbanization over the last 5000 years. It will be shown that the pattern of urbanization as part of the immensely complex world system exhibits non-linearity in that it is neither smooth nor continuous but rather is punctuated by periods of rapid change interspersed between periods of stasis. This pattern was first described in biological systems by Eldridge and Gould (1972) for speciation, and much of the pattern of urbanization reflects the characteristics of punctuated equilibrium first described by those two authors. Specifically, this paper will investigate the phenomenon of punctuated equilibrium reflected in both the macro-pattern of urbanization over historic time, i.e. the evidence for punctuated equilibrium as reflected by data on urbanization and on the level of state development, and possible mechanisms for such punctuated behavior including the general model of self-organized criticality as developed by Per Bak (1996), the role of hypercycle formation in punctuated equilibrium, the role of aromorphic processes, and the interaction between population, carrying capacity, and level of technology as represented by a very general math model.

The paper looks into the evolution of globalization at its ear-liest stages (from the Neolithic Revolution to the Urban Rev-olution). Building on the approach by Frank, Chase-Dunn, and Hall to defining the age of the World System, we view the network space of the ancient World System which secured its cohesion. This network space served to transmit and diffuse the most important innovations of that time, such as domesticates, technologies, and prestigious goods. For each of these categories we give a number of examples which, taken together, provide sufficient evidence for the emergence of the World System as early as the Neolithic Revolution (and, indeed, in close connection with it).

This article analyzes the global causes of the contemporary crisis and the possibilities to eliminate the most acute problems that have generated this crisis. It analyzes both the negative role of the world financial flows and their important positive functions including the ‘insurance’ of social guaranties at the global scale. In connection with the outcome of the crisis it analyzes the conditions of possible transformations of the world system and the possibility of various global scripts of its near future. It gives a characteristic of the coming ‘epoch of new coalitions’; it gives some futuristic prognosis.
This Globalizing World / Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015. – 224 pp.

In the present paper, on the basis of the theory of production principles and production revolutions, we reveal the interrelation between K-waves and major technological breakthroughs in history and make some predictions about features of the sixth Kondratieff wave in the light of the Cybernetic Revolution which, we think, started in the 1950s. We assume that the sixth K-wave in the 2030s and 2040s will merge with the final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution (which we call the phase of self-regulating systems). This period will be characterized by breakthroughs in medical technologies which will manage to combine many other technologies into a single complex of MBNRIC-technologies (med-bio-nano-robo-info-cognitive technologies). The article offers some predictions concerning the development of these technologies.
Journal of Globalization Studies. Volume 6, Number 2 / November 2015