Найдено научных статей и публикаций: 2, для научной тематики: Climate change
1.
Клименко В. В.; Микушина О. В.; Терешин А. Г.
- История и современность , 2016
Проанализированы последствия для мировой энергетики, а также атмосферы и климата планеты решений, принятых в декабре 2015 г. на Парижской конференции стран – участниц Рамочной конвенции ООН по изменению климата. Проведен анализ добровольных обязательств ряда стран – основных источников выбросов CO2 ...
Проанализированы последствия для мировой энергетики, а также атмосферы и климата планеты решений, принятых в декабре 2015 г. на Парижской конференции стран – участниц Рамочной конвенции ООН по изменению климата. Проведен анализ добровольных обязательств ряда стран – основных источников выбросов CO2 в атмосферу по ограничению воздействия их экономики, в первую очередь энергетических комплексов, на атмосферу и климат. На основе анализа исторической динамики карбоноемкости энергетики крупнейших стран мира показано, что реализация Парижских соглашений потребует беспрецедентных усилий по модернизации мировой энергетики. Разработаны три сценария структуры мирового энергопотребления, соответствующие целевым ориентирам Парижских соглашений. С помощью модельных расчетов изменений атмосферы и климата показано, что даже полная имплементация Парижских соглашений не предотвратит повышения средней глобальной температуры на более чем два градуса по сравнению с доиндустриальной эпохой.
The authors analyze consequences for world power, and also atmosphere and climate of the planet of the decisions made in December, 2015 at the Paris Conference of member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The analysis of voluntary obligations of the number of the countries – the main sources of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere on restriction of impact of their economy, first of all energy complexes, on the atmosphere and climate is conducted. On the basis of the analysis of historical dynamics of carbon intensity of power of the largest countries of the world it is shown that implementation of the Paris agreements will demand unprecedented efforts on modernization of world power. Three scenarios of structure of world energy consumption corresponding to benchmarks of the Paris agreements are developed. It is shown that even complete implementation of the Paris agreements by means of model calculations of the atmosphere and climate changes will not prevent increase in average global temperature by more than two degrees in comparison with the pre-industrial era.
2.
V. Ponomarev, A. Salomatin, D. Kaplunenko, V. Krokhin
- EGS - AGU - EUG Joint Assembly, Abstracts from the meeting held in Nice, France, 6 - 11 April 2003, abstract #524 , 2003
The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the seasonality of centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and dominated oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asia, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST. We us...
The main goals of this study are to estimate and compare the seasonality of centennial/semi-centennial climatic tendencies and dominated oscillations in surface air temperature and precipitation over continental and marginal areas of the Northeast Asia, as well as in the Northwest Pacific SST. We use monthly mean data for the 20th century from the NOAA Global History Climatic Network, JMA data base and WMU/COADS World Atlas of Surface Marine Data. Details of climate change/oscillations associated with cooling or warming in different areas and periods of a year are revealed. Wavelet analyses and two methods of the linear trend estimation are applied. First one is least-squares (LS) method with Fisher's test for statistical significance level. Second one is nonparametric robust (NR) method, based on Theil's rank regression and Kendall's test for statistical significance level. The NR method should be applied to time series with abnormal distribution function typical for precipitation time series. Application of the NR method result in increase the statistical significance of both positive and negative linear trends in all cases of abnormal distribution with negative/positive skewness and low/high kurtosis. Using this method, we have determined spatial patterns of statistically significant climatic trends in surface air temperature, precipitation in the Northeast Asia, and in the Northwest Pacific SST. The most substantial centennial warming in the vast continental area of the mid-latitude band is found mainly for December March. The semi-centennial/ centennial cooling occurs in South Siberia and the subarctic mid-continental area in June September. Opposite tendencies were also revealed in precipitation and SST. Positive semi-centennial tendency in the SST in the second half of the 20th century predominates in the Kuroshio region and in the northwestern area of the subarctic gyre in winter. Negative tendency in the SST dominates in the southwestern subarctic gyre and the offshore area of the subtropic gyre in summer. Comparison of air temperature, precipitation, SST trends and oscillations in different seasons over land marginal and continental areas, as well as in the subarctic and subtropic zones indicates general features of the Northeast Asian Monsoon change/oscillation in 20th century and its second half. Similar features of seasonality in centennial, semi-centennial trends and dominated oscillations are manifested. Climate change and oscillation in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas revealed for the 20th century are explained.